A couple weeks ago I drove my parent’s manual car to run an errand. It was the first time in two years that I’d driven a manual, and I wonder whether it’ll be the last.

Manual cars and more

In 2024 only 22% of new car sales were manual transmissions according to SMMT data, and with the number of new manual models available, this percentage will likely decrease rapidly.

The oncoming UK ban of new internal combustion engine cars in 2030 will complete the change and come 2040 or so there will very few manual cars on the roads, save for hobby and specialist vehicles.

The eventual domination by automatic cars on the roads matches the changes to our energy system that are gaining ground.

·         While only 5% of cars on UK roads are battery electric, they represent 23% of new car sales in 2025.

·         Over the past year 72% of the UK’s electricity came from non-fossil fuels (renewables, nuclear and biomass).

·         1.6 million of 28 million homes in the UK have solar panels, and installations keep rising.

·         Air source heat pumps are still niche, about 200,000 UK homes use them as their primary heat source.

Oil and Gas price shock

These changes may shield some consumers from the worst effects of increasing Gas and Oil prices. However, the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has delivered one of the sharpest oil and gas price shocks in recent history, and most people and businesses in the UK will be affected by the sudden change in prices.

Iran produced around 3.5 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2025, about 4% of global supply. More consequentially, flows through the Strait of Hormuz account for 20% of global oil volumes. Oil prices soared past $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022.

Gas markets were equally rattled. European natural gas benchmarks nearly doubled by mid-March, driven by the suspension of Qatari LNG exports and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Effect on global equities and bond markets

Rising energy costs affect corporate margins across transport, manufacturing, and consumer goods, causing analysts to revise earnings forecasts lower. Consumer spend is down, and the likelihood for increased inflation means markets expect central banks to be circumspect about reducing rates. The multitude of pressures means global stock and bond markets have fallen in the last month since the War started.

The scale of the challenge and the repetition of history

As the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, World Economic Forum analysts warn that Oil prices could reach $150 per barrel in a worst-case scenario. The Iran War stands as an illustration of how a single, sustained energy price shock can destabilise financial markets far beyond the region where the conflict began.

We’ve been through Oil and Gas price shocks before; the 1979 Oil Crisis is perhaps the most famous, but more recent examples include the 1990 Iraq War, and the initial shock when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Markets recovered after each prior occasion.

Staying invested through market falls is a normal part of the investing cycle. We may be able to insulate ourselves in our personal lives from rising Gas and Oil prices, through electrification in our homes and cars. Investing in global markets means an inevitable exposure to world events.